By HD HandshoeFounder—BlockONation
B/R Ohio State Featured Columnist
It's really a simple formula for Ohio State. Win out and go to the Rose Bowl as Big Ten Champions.
That's right—The Buckeyes completely control their own destiny, much to the chagrin of the rest of the conference, and the nation.
A lot of fans and so-called experts believe that the Hawkeyes (8-0, 4-0) are going to win the rest of their games -- which includes a trip to Columbus to face the Buckeyes (6-2, 4-1) on November 14th -- and thus win the Big Ten.
Personal bias aside, I honestly believe the Buckeyes are every bit as good as Iowa, if not better. That will certainly be settled on the field soon enough, but here are the stats and facts that support my position for you to ponder in the interim.
Wins, Losses, and Close Calls
As I already noted, Iowa does not have any losses yet but they have had close calls against Northern Iowa, Arkansas State, and Michigan (all at home) and on the road against Michigan State.
Against FCS cupcake Northern Iowa (5-3), the Hawkeyes blocked not one, but two field goals in the final seconds to survive by a slim one-point margin, 17-16.
Arkansas State (2-4) of the Sun Belt Conference, which has only been an FBS program since 2001, pulled within three points of Iowa in the closing minutes only to run out of time in their 24-21 loss.
Michigan (5-3, 1-3) trailed Iowa by only two-points with just under a minute to go. They were driving toward a possible game-winning field goal or touchdown when true freshmen quarterback Denard Robinson made an ill-advised pass that was picked off, and Iowa just barely eked out a 30-28 win.
Last week, Iowa trailed Michigan State 6-3 entering the fourth quarter and hardly resembled a 7-0, top ten team. After kicking two field goals to take a 9-6 lead with 2:56 remaining in the game, the Hawkeyes short-lived lead disappeared with 1:37 left when Kirk Cousins connected with Blair White for a 30-yard touchdown.
Trailing 13-9, Iowa managed to quickly get down the field versus a very vanilla prevent defense by the Spartans, and with less than 20 seconds left, had the ball 1st and goal just a few yards inside the 10.
After passes on first, second, and third down were all incomplete, Iowa had time for one final play. As luck would have it, Ricky Stanzi connected with Marvin McNutt on a quick slant for a seven-yard touchdown as time expired and Houdini escaped once again.
The Buckeyes only close call came against Navy (6-2) in week one in their 31-27 win. I won't make excuses but I will mention that Navy is a good team and they are an FBS program, but Ohio State was never in danger of being behind and the game really was never in doubt despite the late comeback and closer-than-expected final score.
The Buckeyes 18-15 loss to USC could have, and probably would have been a win if Coach Tressel was not the most conservative play-caller to have ever lived.
As for the Purdue debacle, that was a clear case of the players and coaches not being prepared and completely taking a win over the Boilermakers for granted. Line them up nine more times and Ohio State wins all nine, guaranteed.
But wait, there's more!
Offensive Statistics
Everyone has been ripping on Ohio State, and specifically quarterback Terrelle Pryor and Jim Tressel, for how "bad" the Buckeye offense has been this season.
Iowa is averaging 23.6 points per game and 342 total yards.
Ohio State is averaging 29.3 points per game and 353 total yards.
That's not a misprint or typo. It's close, but Iowa's offensive numbers aren't quite as good as Ohio State's, but for some reason, nobody else has seemed to notice.
Defensive Statistics
Iowa did hold Penn State, who had been averaging 30 points per game, to 10 points, but let's be honest here. The Nittany Lions put up those points against Akron, Syracuse, and Temple -- not exactly a who's who list of powerhouses.
Iowa has given up an average of 297 total yards per game and 14.8 points.
Ohio State has given up an average of 285 total yards per game and 13.1 points.
Again, the numbers are close, but the slight edge goes to Ohio State, and I for one do not believe Iowa would have held USC to 18 points, nor would they have beaten them either. Sorry Hawkeye fans, I'd be surprised if USC didn't beat Iowa by at least 14 or more points.
Common Opponent: Wisconsin
Iowa outgained the Badgers in total yardage (283 to 230) and won by a final of 20-10 after entering the fourth quarter tied 10-10.
Ohio State was outgained by the Badgers in total yardage (368-184) as the defense certainly bent, but never broke. The Buckeyes pulled away in the third quarter, and went on to a fairly comfortable 31-13 win.
Like I said, all of this may mean something, or possibly nothing, when the teams meet up in Ohio Stadium in a little over two weeks.
Ricky Stanzi isn't a bad quarterback by any means but overall, Terrelle Pryor has better stats, is absolutely a better athlete, and has more talent around him than does Stanzi.
And now that the Hawkeyes leading rusher, Adam Robinson is out for the year, I feel even more confident that the Buckeyes can beat the Hawkeyes.
But I suppose I better not count my Buckeyes before they fall from the tree, since the last time I did that, we lost to Purdue...
So for now, let's take it one game at a time.
Go Bucks—Beat New Mexico State!
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We need to pump the brakes and focus on NMST, then PSU. But I do agree, Iowa is a very winnable game for us!
ReplyDeleteand a loss to scUM Plus a loss to PSU
ReplyDeleteThe Big 10 still belongs to Ohio St?...correct me if I am wrong, but Penn St has won the conference twice in the past 4 years and is the defending champion. How can you own something that is not your?.
ReplyDeleteWith your "thorough" analysis of the hawkeyes, you left out on important thing - they take things one game at a time, unlike yourself.
ReplyDeletePenn State will lose to OSU before they face the hawks.
The Buckeyes 18-15 loss to USC could have, and probably would have been a win if Coach Tressel was not the most conservative play-caller to have ever lived.
ReplyDeleteAs for the Purdue debacle, that was a clear case of the players and coaches not being prepared and completely taking a win over the Boilermakers for granted. Line them up nine more times and Ohio State wins all nine, guaranteed.
If my aunt had balls, she would be my uncle.
As I already noted, Iowa does not have any losses yet but they have had close calls against Northern Iowa, Arkansas State, and Michigan (all at home) and on the road against Michigan State.
ReplyDeleteIn 2002, almost the whole season was a close call for Ohio St...but, you won't bring that up.
Against FCS cupcake Northern Iowa (5-3), the Hawkeyes blocked not one, but two field goals in the final seconds to survive by a slim one-point margin, 17-16.
ReplyDelete...any Navy, Toldeo and New Mexico St are powerhouses?
common opponents?
ReplyDeleteremember last year...Penn St beat Oregon St and Oregon St beat USC...Penn St will easily win the Rose Bowl, right?...wrong, the game was not even close.
The Big 10 still belongs to Ohio St?...correct me if I am wrong, but Penn St has won the conference twice in the past 4 years and is the defending champion. How can you own something that is not yours?.
ReplyDeleteOctober 29, 2009 8:32 AM
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Ohio State has won or shared the last FOUR Big Ten titles, so you are a fucking moron, whoever you are that posted that comment.
Ohio State is a different team at home.. That being said the game that will determine the fate of buckeye nation is a week earlier at Happy Vally.. Lose that game and The Iowa game will not make a difference..
ReplyDeleteGO HAWKS
Iowa is arguably the most overrated team in CFB right now.
ReplyDeleteOhio State's defense is indeed better than Iowa's and their offense is more versatile and dangerous than anybody Iowa has played yet with Pryor at the helm, I have a feeling he's righting the ship.
This author and some Ohio State fans are some arrogant bastards. You guys need to worry about the game ahead of you and quit crying about not being in the spotlight.
ReplyDelete"Personal BIAS aside, I honestly believe the Buckeyes are every bit as good as Iowa, if not better. That will certainly be settled on the field soon enough, but here are the stats and facts that support my position for you to ponder in the interim."
ReplyDeleteUmmm, you forgot to take out some bias in your article.
"Arkansas State (2-4) of the Sun Belt Conference, which has only been an FBS program since 2001, pulled within three points of Iowa in the closing minutes only to run out of time in their 24-21 loss."
"The Buckeyes only close call came against Navy (6-2) in week one in their 31-27 win. I won't make excuses but I will mention that Navy is a good team and they are an FBS program, but Ohio State was never in danger of being behind and the game really was never in doubt despite the late comeback and closer-than-expected final score."
Ok so when Iowa gets a close game but was never in danger of being behind and the game really was never in doubt despite the late comback and closer-than-expected final score it's beacause of the time, but when Ohio State has to intercept a pass from a 2-point conversion (that would have tied the game) its a never in danger of being behind and the game really was never in doubt despite the late comeback and closer-than-expected final score. Got it.
"Iowa is averaging 23.6 points per game and 342 total yards.
Ohio State is averaging 29.3 points per game and 353 total yards.
That's not a misprint or typo. It's close, but Iowa's offensive numbers aren't quite as good as Ohio State's, but for some reason, nobody else has seemed to notice."
You really don't understand it? Ok I'll tell you, Iowa has played some of the TOP defenses in the Big Ten and Ohio State toughest challenge besides Wisconsin was... Minnesota? however USC does have a good defense and Wisconsin, but Iowa has played Wisconsin, Penn State < USC on defense, Michigan State, Arizona > Minnesota on defense,... ect just look at Iowa's schedule.
"Iowa outgained the Badgers in total yardage (283 to 230) and won by a final of 20-10 after entering the fourth quarter tied 10-10.
Ohio State was outgained by the Badgers in total yardage (368-184) as the defense certainly bent, but never broke. The Buckeyes pulled away in the third quarter, and went on to a fairly comfortable 31-13 win."
Your right it's better to pull away early on turnovers/kick returns that to battle it out and win.
now with that all said I still have my doughts about who is going to win but one thing I can be sure of is it will be a great game to watch, win or lose.
Ohio State will win handily.
ReplyDeletePryor got some advice from T. Smith, and he is taking it seriously.
He is now going to make quicker decisions on when to run and throw.
Iowa will struggle a lot against Ohio State on offense. Their offense isn't really equipped to handle a defense like it. If Pryor continues his better decision making Ohio State should win by at least 14 points, maybe more.
WOW! I cannot believe the comments in here. After the Purdue loss for OSU they were ready to hang coach Tressel and Pryor and now they are proclaiming Pryor the king again after a tough tough game against....Minnesota and their HORRIBLE defense. I cannot wait until you guys go into Happy Valley and PSU EXPOSES you like Purdue did. I hasnt fair well at the Shoe well EVER but this year is different. You cannot compare an undefeated Iowa and your O$U because we have played a lot better defenses and better teams for the most part. I mean you guys really scored well on USC and we all know what Oregon St and Notre Dame put up on that defense........
ReplyDeleteOhio St is a fraud...then again, the whole Big 10 is.
ReplyDeletewho got the better bowl game in 2005 and in 2008? Penn St did...who won the head to head matchup? Penn St did...so Penn St has won the conference 2 times in the past 4 years and is the defending champion. Simple as that.
If you spin it enough, things will start to look good for Ohio St.
That's nice that you won against Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana. You have yet to play Michigan, Iowa, and Penn State, when you do then you can start talking about how great you are, but when your schedule (with the exception of USC, who is actually overrated however) is pretty cush compared to Iowa's shut up.
ReplyDeleteI put Penn State over you guys anyways.
That's cool how you put PSU over us, when our greatness dominates both Iowa, Penn State, and Michigan you will have a nice learning experience.
ReplyDeleteIowa's secondary is going to expose the *$%^ out of Pryor.
ReplyDelete17-13 Iowa
Nah, Pryor throws for over 200 yards and rushes for a good 60+, easy. 1 INT at best for Iowa's secondary. This isn't the same Pryor as before, he's better now.
ReplyDeleteOhio State's secondary on the other hand could pick of Stanzi multiple times.
"That's cool how you put PSU over us, when our greatness dominates both Iowa, Penn State, and Michigan you will have a nice learning experience."
ReplyDeletePutting that OSU education to use, eh? BOTH?
"Against FCS cupcake Northern Iowa (5-3)..."
ReplyDeleteUNI is hardly an FCS cupcake. They played for the FCS championship last year and are perennial FCS playoff contenders. Lack of research sucks...but then again, you might not be able to make any of your points stick if you actually did so.
"UNI is hardly an FCS cupcake. They played for the FCS championship last year and are perennial FCS playoff contenders. Lack of research sucks...but then again, you might not be able to make any of your points stick if you actually did so."
ReplyDelete========================
Sorry whoever you are, but Northern Illinois is a cupcake vs. DI teams.
Dominating in the FCS means very little when it comes to facing a good FBS opponent.
Clearly Iowa is overrated since they struggled and lucked into a win.
OSU will prove that in 2 weeks.
Criticizing a typo eh? Do you guys really have to sink that low because you don't know anything about football?
ReplyDeleteTo the Anonymous poster from October 29, 2009 8:51 AM above:
ReplyDelete-------------------------
Navy is a good team, Toledo and New Mexico St are not very good, BUT all are FBS, unlike Northern Iowa
ohio state sucks. nice schedule this year.
ReplyDeleteBetter than anybody else's in the B10.
ReplyDeleteOne good season does not make a Big 10 Champion, Iowa fans. I feel whole heartedly that you will be exposed by the end of this season. Impressive season? Yes. Impressive football team? I would chalk it up to luck more than talent...
ReplyDeleteAs for Ohio state owning the Big 10... what flavor kool-aid are they feeding you out there? I'm pretty sure Penn State took the Rose Bowl slot, and the Big 10, since we BEAT you in 2008. You can say you "tied" until you are blue in the face. We beat you last year, thus making us the Big 10 Champs. We also won the Orange Bowl in 2005. What Bowl game did OSU last win? I will hand it to OSU fans, your football team is talented and plays a great game, impressive at most times -- but you're definitely reaching by saying the Big 10 belongs to you. That title still belongs to PSU, at least for one more week of this season.
See you Saturday Buckeyes, don't worry, we will bring the tissues for Pryor!