Showing posts with label rose bowl. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rose bowl. Show all posts

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Ohio State's BCS Future, Plus BCS Projections for Every Bowl—"Firmly" Fluid Edition



With the Big Ten regular season in the books, it's a good time to take a look at the latest projections, pending next week's conference title game results of course.

There could be an upset or two, but if there are none, here is who will likely be playing who, their estimated final BCS ranking, and in what bowl they will meet.


BCS National Championship Game
No. 2 Auburn vs. No.1 Oregon


Rose Bowl

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 3 TCU


Sugar Bowl

No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Arkansas


Orange Bowl

No. 13 Virginia Tech vs. No. 4 Stanford


Fiesta Bowl

UConn vs. No. 12 Nebraska


The Fiesta will get screwed hard by having last choice and thus getting stuck with an unranked Big East champ, while several much-more deserving teams will be left on the outside looking in.

A few of note on that list include Boise State, LSU, Michigan State, and Oklahoma.

Every year we are left wondering what will it take to facilitate the college presidents to admit it is time for a playoff at the FBS level.

And every year, there are injustices and oversights, and tons of question marks about who really deserved to be ranked No. 1 or No. 2.

A playoff would not be perfect either because if there are eight teams chosen, teams nine and 10 will complain, but hands down, it would be better than the BCS.

For now, it is the system we have and those are the teams that will likely meet in each of the bowls this post season.

The again, a few upsets could occur next week rendering everything you just read completely moot, so stay tuned!


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Sunday, November 14, 2010

Ohio State's BCS Bowl Outlook: What Needs to Happen for the Buckeyes to Secure an Invite



With just two games remaining on their schedule, it seems clear what the Buckeyes must do to make their record-ninth BCS Bowl game appearance.

In the words of Oakland Raiders owner / NFL relic Al Davis, "Just win baby!"

Yes, it sounds very oversimplified—considering that most of us really don't (nor do we necessarily want to) understand the complexity of the formula(s) that the BCS uses when plugging random numbers into their silly little computers, but for Ohio State, it really is that simple—win, and their in.

At this point, a Rose Bowl berth is a bit of a long shot unless Michigan or Northwestern—Wisconsin's final two opponents—have some upset-aiding tricks up their sleeves these next two weeks.

For the Buckeyes to play in the 2011 Rose Bowl, they must win out and count on either Michigan or Northwestern to upset the Badgers.

Michigan has no defense, but they are actually decent on offense and can score, so they might have a chance if they can beat Captain Run-Up-the-Score, Brett Bielema, to 80.

As for Northwestern, they almost always seems to play big in big conference games in the role of spoiler, so they have a chance too—just ask Iowa.

If neither of those teams upset Wisconsin, the Buckeyes still control their own BCS destiny by beating Iowa and Michigan in their last two games.

Somewhere hidden deep within the BCS formulation, there is a strength of schedule component that should favor the Buckeyes over Michigan State.

With the win over Penn State (while MSU was idle) and assuming the Buckeyes beat Iowa and Michigan, there's practically zero chance the Spartans will jump in front of the Buckeyes in the BCS standings with just Purdue and Penn State remaining on their schedule.

It looks as though Wisconsin and Ohio State will both finish higher than Michigan State in the BCS rankings if all three teams win their final games.

That means the Badgers would get the automatic bid for the Rose, and the Buckeyes would receive an at-large invite to the Sugar Bowl (SEC vs. highest ranked non-auto bid team) or the Orange Bowl (ACC vs. at-large), while the Spartans would play in the Capital One Bowl.

The Sugar Bowl would be the best BCS Bowl destination for Ohio State if they don't play in Pasadena.

Seeing the Buckeyes face an SEC opponent (Alabama or LSU specifically) would make for great TV ratings since everyone knows that OSU is 0-9 vs. SEC opponents in Bowl games all-time. Hopefully, they would finally get that monkey off their backs.

Buckeye fans would travel well as they always do even if Ohio State were to accept an invite to the Orange Bowl to face the ACC champ. A win in this game however would do nothing to boost respect for Ohio State so let's just hope thy go elsewhere.

It would be nice if the Fiesta Bowl could land Ohio State vs. TCU, Boise State, or Nebraska, but they are handcuffed to the Big 12 and Big East champs.

The Arizona desert is like a second home to Buckeye fans, and it could make for great drama to finally see a non-AQ team prove it's worth, or crumble, against one of college football's all-time elite programs instead of playing each other.

Ohio State-Nebraska could also be a great game as well, and a nice prequel to what's coming starting in 2011 when the Cornhuskers join the Big 10, but we'll just have to wait until next year.

The road map to a BCS Bowl game is clear-cut for Ohio State. Which Bowl it ends up being is the only remaining question mark, and that depends on what all the other potential BCS-bound teams do over these last three weeks.

Ohio State just needs to focus on the tasks at hand, and the rest will take care of itself.

Beat Iowa.

Beat Michigan.

Play in a BCS Bowl.

It really is that simple.


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Saturday, November 6, 2010

Eight Possible Bowl Game Destinations for the Buckeyes and the Path Leading to Each

The Buckeyes will be going "Bowling" for the 11th straight season, as they are already bowl eligible with eight wins.

The past five seasons Ohio State has played in a BCS game, including two National Championship Games, and since the inception of the BCS in 1999, the Buckeyes have made the most appearances of any program in BCS games with eight (5-3).

This season, the Buckeyes are again back in the hunt for a BCS Bowl game, and have an extreme, outside shot at playing for the national title.

Depending what happens the rest of the season, Ohio State could find itself in one of eight different bowl games, barring a complete implosion.

If they win out, the Buckeyes will ensure a BCS invite. If they lose any of their three remaining games, they'd need a lot of help to go BCS-bowling.

In order of likeliest to least likeliest, here are the possible Bowl games Jim Tressel and his team could find themselves in this post-season.


At-Large BCS Bowl (Fiesta, Orange or Sugar)

Ohio State currently ranks No.11 in the BCS standings. If the Buckeyes win out, beating Penn State, Iowa and Michigan, there is no way that an 11-1 team whose fans travel they way they do is kept out of a BCS Bowl game.

Even if Wisconsin and Michigan State both win out, and there is a three-way tie for the Big Ten Championship, Ohio State would still get the nod to play in either the Orange, Sugar or Fiesta Bowl based on their higher BCS ranking.

No more than two teams from one conference can play in the BCS Bowl games, if the Badgers, the Spartans and the Buckeyes all win out, Wisconsin will likely play in the Rose Bowl and Ohio State would be the other Big Ten team in the BCS mix.

The Buckeyes are ranked higher than the Spartans in this week's BCS standings and they have a tougher remaining schedule than Michigan State does, so there's no way Sparty jumps Ohio State in the BCS.

Win out, and Ohio State will find itself in a BCS Bowl game, period.


Rose Bowl

In order for Ohio State to play in its' second straight Rose Bowl, it needs a little help from Purdue, Indiana, Michigan or Northwestern.

Those are the remaining opponents for Wisconsin, and if the Badgers and Buckeyes both win out, it will be Wisconsin representing the Big Ten in Pasadena.

The Badgers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Ohio State and if the Big Ten were to finish in a three-way tie for first with the Buckeyes, Wisconsin and Michigan State, the school ranked highest in the final BCS standings will play in the Rose Bowl, according to Big Ten conference tiebreakers.

It's not impossible for Wisconsin to lose. The Badgers play the Wolverines in Ann Arbor the second-to-last week of the season, a place where they haven't won since 1994.

After playing Michigan, Wisconsin will host Northwestern the final week of the regular season. The Wildcats had Michigan State on the ropes for much of the Oct. 23 game between the two, and they stunned the Badgers last year, beating them 33-31.


Gator Bowl

If the Buckeyes slip up in any one of their final three games, they could find themselves playing in the Gator Bowl.

The Gator Bowl pits the No.4 or No.5 team in the Big Ten against the No.6 team in the SEC.

If Ohio State were to lose one of its' final three games, it would likely be in Kinnick Stadium against Iowa. Assuming that's where the loss occurs, the Buckeyes would need help to avoid playing in the Gator Bowl.

Now, there's all sorts of possibilities and scenarios for what Bowl game Ohio State could play in should it lose, but the simplest one is this:

* The Buckeyes lose at Iowa
* Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan State all win out
* Wisconsin is the only Big Ten team invited to a BCS bowl game.

With Wisconsin potentially in the Rose Bowl, and if either Iowa or Michigan State were to get an at-large bid to play in a BCS game, the Buckeyes would play in the Outback bowl, a game reserved for the No. 3 team in the Big Ten.


Capital One Bowl

With a loss to Iowa, Ohio State could very well wind up in the Capital One Bowl.

Iowa would likely get a BCS at-large bid, regardless if Wisconsin loses or not. The Hawkeyes would have wins over the Buckeyes and Michigan State, and their only loses would be to the Badgers and Arizona.

With Wisconsin playing in the Rose Bowl and Iowa receiving an at-large bid, the only thing standing between Ohio State and the Capital One Bowl would be a Spartans loss—like a Wisconsin loss, not impossible.

Michigan State plays in Happy Valley against Penn State to close out the regular season. Look for that one to be one of the Nittany Lions customary white-out games, and a difficult game for Sparty.


Outback Bowl

The Buckeyes started their 11-year streak with back-to-back appearances in the Outback Bowl against South Carolina.

In 2001, Ohio State loss to the Gamecocks 24-7 in coach John Cooper's last game and in 2002, the Buckeyes fell again 31-28 after a late comeback attempt fell short.

If Ohio State loses any of their remaining games, and depending on how the season unfolds for Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Iowa, the Bucks could find themselves heading back to Tampa.

Again, there are tons of scenarios and possibilities for what could happen, but if the Buckeyes were to lose, the simplest way they could end up playing in the Outback Bowl would be if:

* The loss came against Iowa
* Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan State all win out
* Two of those three teams get bids to play in a BCS game

Under those circumstances, the team (out of Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan State) that does not get a BCS bid will play in the Capital One Bowl, which has a spot reserved for the Big Ten's No.2 team, but if two Big Ten teams play in BCS games the spot would go to the next Big Ten team in line.

Ohio State could also find itself in the Outback Bowl if it loses to Iowa and only one Big Ten team (Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl) plays in a BCS game, and Michigan State loses.


BCS National Championship Game

While not all that likely, it is possible—think 2007.

Ohio State could find its way back into the National Championship mix if it wins out and has a TON of help.

In 2007, the Buckeyes fell to No.7 in the BCS with one game to play after losing to Illinois, only to find themselves ranked No.1 when the final standings were released.

In order for Ohio State to play in this year's title game, it's going to need something similar to happen, but on steroids.

As crazy as this sounds, the Buckeyes DO have a chance to play for the championship.

One of my buddies has come up with an ultimate plan for Ohio State to reach the National Championship game. I have to say, at first I thought he was insane when he unveiled it to me, but after thinking about it, it is possible, albeit extremely far-fetched.

It is a bit complex, but in order for the Buckeyes to be playing on Jan. 10 in Arizona, all of the following needs to happen.

1. Ohio State needs to win out

2. Texas A&M beats Oklahoma

3. South Carolina beats Florida

4. Oklahoma beats Baylor/Oklahoma State winner

5. Alabama beats LSU

6. Alabama beats Auburn

7. Arizona or Oregon State beats Oregon

8. Nevada beats Boise State

9. South Carolina beats Alabama in SEC Championship game

10. Oklahoma/Oklahoma State/Baylor/Texas A&M beats Nebraska in Big 12 Championship game (key is anyone to beat Nebraska in title game needs two losses)

If ALL of that happens, Ohio State could play for the MNC versus the undefeated TCU/Utah winner, a one-loss Auburn or a one-loss Wisconsin.

Crazy—I know, but still not impossible.

However, the Badgers almost have to lose too. It's hard to imagine the Buckeyes jumping them in the BCS if they both have the same overall record at 11-1, considering Wisconsin beat Ohio State head-to-head.

Either way, Wisconsin needs to keep on winning for now, because as the Badgers move up in the BCS, they'll take the Buckeyes with them.

At the end of the day, the Buckeyes best odds are playing in a BCS game—most likely the Orange or Fiesta Bowl.

Ohio State could definitely beat their remaining three opponents, but it probably won't be enough to jump ahead of Wisconsin in the final BCS standings for that spot in the Rose Bowl.

Although, Wisconsin could be the beneficiary of late-season carnage (as the Buckeyes were in '07') and find itself playing for the National Championship, which could in-turn find the Buckeyes playing in Pasadena on New Year's Day.

There's a lot of football to be played and things are going to change week-by-week, so we really won't know which of these scenarios come to fruition for a few more weeks, but it's going to be a blast watching it all unfold!


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This article was written by Aaron Green and originally published on 11/06/2010 at BleacherReport.com

Friday, December 4, 2009

2010 Rose Bowl—Ohio State vs. Oregon: Preview, History Lesson, and Prediction Included




Preview

It is official—the stage is set.

Oregon outlasted Oregon State in "The Civil War" and will now face the REAL OSU.

That's right—The Big Ten champion vs. the Pac-10 champion in the grand-daddy of them all.

The No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) will face the No. 7 Oregon Ducks (10-2) on January 1, 2010 in Pasadena at the Rose Bowl presented by Citi.

The Ducks are a very talented offensive team, and to this point have proven they can score plenty of points to win games—especially in the clutch.

The Buckeyes aren't quite as flashy, preferring to pound their opponents with their unrelenting and very successful running game while boasting one of the top defensive units in the nation, yielding less than 11 points per game.

Will the experience and leadership of junior QB Jeremiah Masoli be the difference in leading the Ducks to victory and another big-stage loss for Ohio State, or will youth win out as sophomore QB Terrelle Pryor looks for the first bowl win of his Buckeye career after a narrow, near-miss-loss to Texas a year ago?

One thing is certain—When these two teams meet in Pasadena, something must, and will give.

They say defense wins championships and Ohio State gets the edge on that side of the ball—but it remains to be seen if defense, or offense, will ultimately win the 2010 Rose Bowl.


Oregon—By The Numbers

Jeremiah Masoli has 2,066 passing yards, 659 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns, 15 passing touchdowns, five interceptions, and a QB Rating of 138.

Masoli, LaMichael James, and Kenjon Barner have combined for 2,437 yards on the ground and 29 rushing touchdowns. That's an average of 203 yards and 2.4 touchdowns per game.

After missing 10 games due to suspension, LeGarette Blount is also back in the mix and may have an impact against the Buckeyes for the Ducks.

Oregon's top receivers are Jeff Maehl (52 receptions, 686 yards, six touchdowns), Ed Dickson (42 receptions, 551 yards, six touchdowns), D.J. Davis (22 receptions, 230 yards, two touchdowns), and Jamere Holland (13 receptions, 199 yards, two touchdowns).


Ohio State—By The Numbers

Terrelle Pryor has 1825 passing yards, 707 rushing yards, seven rushing touchdowns, 16 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and a QB Rating of 128.

Pryor, Brandon Saine, Boom Herron, and Jordan Hall have combined for 2,207 yards on the ground and 19 rushing touchdowns. That's an average of 184 yards and 1.6 touchdowns per game.

Ohio State's top receivers are DeVier Posey (52 receptions, 727 yards, seven touchdowns plus one passing touchdown), Dane Sanzenbacher (27 receptions, 506 yards, six touchdowns), Duron Carter (13 receptions, 176 yards, one touchdown), Ray Small (15 receptions, 175 yards), and Brandon Saine (15 receptions, 165 yards, one touchdown). Small is also a solid contributor as a punt returner.




2010


1/01/2010—Game 13—4:30PM EST—TV: ABC


Vs.





History Lesson
Ohio State—Oregon Tidbits


• This will be the eighth meeting between Ohio State and Oregon.

• Ohio State leads the all-time series 7-0 (1958, 1961, 1962, 1967, 1968, 1983, 1987).

• Ohio State is 6-6 all-time in the Rose Bowl.

• This will be Ohio State's first Rose Bowl appearance since their 1997 win over Arizona State.

• The first ever meeting between the two schools was in the 1958 Rose Bowl, a 10-7 Ohio State victory.

• This will be the first meeting in which Ohio State and Oregon are both ranked in the top 10.

• Oregon is 1-3 all-time in the Rose Bowl, the programs only win coming in 1917 over Penn—no not Penn State, just Penn.

• Oregon's last Rose Bowl appearance was a 38-20 loss to Penn State in 1995.



I seriously doubt that Ohio State's defense, as good as it is, will hold Oregon to less than 11 points.

That being said, I do not believe Oregon's defense will be able to contain the Buckeyes running game, nor will they be able to keep the Bucks from scoring.

Clearly Masoli has better statistics and would be considered the better QB of the two right now, but I do believe Terrelle Pryor will have more success vs. the Oregon defense than will Jeremiah Masoli against the Buckeye defense when it comes to scrambling away from pressure, and finding open receivers down the field.

Much like the 2009 Fiesta Bowl (Texas, Ohio State), I fully expect this game to be one of the best, and most entertaining bowls of the season, and also like that game, this one could come down to the final seconds as well.

Call me a homer if you want, but the Buckeyes are due for a big-stage bowl game win, and the Big Ten rep finally gets to play a game in Pasadena in which its' opponent is not essentially playing at home 10 minutes from campus (cough, USC, cough).


Prediction

Ohio State 24
Oregon 17


The Ducks WILL NOT blowout Ohio State, if they even win -- which is NOT a given.

P.S. to the Duck fans posting the cocky, disrespectful, classless comments in the comment section below, I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

Your fan base and your players are clearly birds of a feather...




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Sunday, November 15, 2009

Smelling Roses: Ohio State Punches Ticket to Pasadena in OT Instant Classic

by HD Handshoe
Founder—Block-O-Nation



The Hawkeyes certainly didn't make it easy, even without Ricky Stanzi, and his replacement, redshirt freshmen QB James Vandenberg played beyond his years.

Of course, the game could have been out of reach if the Buckeyes were not limited by "Tressel-ball," as usual.

They were however still able to pull out the "W" despite Jim Tressel's best efforts to give Iowa the game with his ultra-conservative, play not-to-lose style.

In case you missed the game, or just would like to reminisce on the victory by watching the highlights, here you go:




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