Showing posts with label boise state broncos. Show all posts
Showing posts with label boise state broncos. Show all posts

Sunday, November 7, 2010

BCS Deja Vu: 2010 is Starting to Look a lot Like 2007



It may not be the Buckeyes that reap the benefits of all these supposed (fraudulent) top 10 teams losing, but another Big 10 team, Wisconsin is potentially in line for a national title shot if a few more stars align just right.

That being said, if Wisconsin stumbles in their last three games, then maybe 2007 really does replay itself this season and finds the Buckeyes playing for the title unexpectedly. It COULD happen, however unlikely it may seem.

By the end of the season, some combination of Oregon, Boise State, Auburn and TCU should be No. 1 and No. 2 respectively based on SOS in combination with the human polls.

Assuming that holds true and after watching several teams drop in week 10, here is an updated list of the things that could and would have to happen that could ultimately allow Ohio State to play in the 2010-2011 BCS title game.




1. A loss by Auburn to either Georgia, Alabama, or the South Carolina/Florida winner in the SEC Championship game, or, a loss by TCU to San Diego State or New Mexico.

2. A loss by Oregon to either Cal, Arizona, or Oregon State.

3. A loss or even an ugly win or two by Boise State against Idaho, Fresno State, Nevada, or Utah State. However, the SOS factor itself may take BSU out of the picture even if they win them all big.

4. A loss by Nebraska to either Kansas, Texas A&M, Colorado, or in the Big 12 Championship game.

5. A loss by Wisconsin to either Indiana, Michigan, or Northwestern.

6. A loss by LSU to LA-Monroe, Mississippi, or Arkansas.

7. A loss by Stanford to either Arizona State, Cal, or Oregon State.

8. Lastly, three wins by the Buckeyes to finish the season over Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan.




Since a team doesn't have to be No. 1 to play in the BCS title game, not every scenario above HAS to happen, but most of them [probably at least six of the eight listed, with number eight being the most important] do.

The least likely of them to happen is TCU losing, but that's OK.

vs.
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Ohio State vs. TCU for the title would be a huge draw as Buckeye fans would all assume the title would be a lock, while the haters would tune in hoping to see the Buckeyes get embarrassed on the national stage to a non-AQ team.

It's a dream come true for the BCS and a win-win for everyone, so to all the teams ahead of Ohio State who are not TCU, do your part and lose over the next three to four weeks.

That is all.


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Monday, October 25, 2010

College Football Week 8 Rankings: Justifying What the Top 10 Should Look Like



Just like the AP voters and the coaches who vote in the USAToday Poll, I am also a human voter, but unlike the AP voters and coaches, I allow sound logic to define my rankings.

I am not sure what some of those voters base their rankings off of—The flip of a coin perhaps, or maybe they ask their wives which teams have the the prettiest colors?

Here's a real man's top 10, not based on heads, tails, excellent color coordinating, or just plain idiocy...


No. 10 - Alabama (7-1)

Alabama was No. 8 in last weeks BCS standings and will likely move up at least one or two slots after their win over Tennessee, combined with LSU's loss at Auburn.

What the national poll voters are ignoring is that after Alabama lost by 14 points to South Carolina (5-2), the Gamecocks then went on to lose at Kentucky (4-4), and they struggled until late in their 21-7 win against Vanderbilt (2-5) last evening.

Also last evening, Georgia (4-4) took the Wildcats out behind the woodshed to the tune of a 44-31 pounding in Lexington.

Only one of Alabama's wins have come against a team still currently ranked in the top 25 (Arkansas) and the loss to South Carolina continues to look worse and worse with each passing week.


No. 9 - Ohio State (7-1)

Like every other team, Ohio State is not perfect, but they are a solid top 10 team.

In the national polls, Ohio State is 10th, while Alabama is 6th, but those voters have it wrong. The Buckeyes deserve to be ahead of the Tide for several reasons.

Ohio State has one win over a team currently in the top 25 (Miami-Fl (5-2)), but their 13-point-loss in Camp Randall Stadium to now-No. 9 Wisconsin (7-1) looks much better than Alabama's loss at South Carolina.

It's true that no loss is a "good loss", but Ohio State losing at Wisconsin was much less of an upset than Alabama losing at South Carolina.

The Badgers only loss this year was in East Lansing to No. 5 Michigan State (8-0).

The Gamecocks have two losses—to Auburn (8-0) and Kentucky (4-4).

Ohio State is also the only team with a loss in the FBS that ranks in the top in both scoring offense (6th, scoring 40.8 ppg) and scoring defense (9th, allowing only 14.0 ppg).

The only other teams in the nation that have a top 10 scoring offense and scoring defense are Boise State, TCU, and Utah.


No. 8 - Wisconsin (7-1)

As mentioned above, the Badgers only defeat was to the No. 5 Spartans in East Lansing.

Last night, Wisconsin won their second huge game in as many weeks when they traveled to Iowa City and took down the No. 18 Hawkeyes, 31-30, one week after beating then-No. 1 Ohio State.

The case could be made by others and even myself that Wisconsin is too low sitting here at No. 8, but the top 10 will become much more clear in the next two to three weeks and they could find themselves in the top five when that dust settles.


No. 7 - Utah (7-0)

Utah might be a slot or two too high, but you have to respect an unbeaten team and not punish them just because the other teams in their conference mail it in every year.

Also, you may remember from above that Utah is one of only four FBS teams ranked in the top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense.

They opened the season with a win over then No. 15 Pitt and have not really been tested since then, but that will all change starting next week.

It is possible, although unlikely, that the Utes could go from 7-0 to 7-5 to finish off the season with remaining games at home against AP No. 4 TCU and BYU and road games against Air Force, Notre Dame, and San Diego State.

Coming out of the mine field unscathed and still unbeaten would be an absolute miracle for Utah.


No. 6 - Michigan State (8-0)

The Spartans last started a season 8-0 in 1966 and ended up winning a share of the national title. In the corrupt system that is the BCS, they might not get the chance to play for a title this season even if they finish 12-0.

[rant]Everyone with a half-functioning brain can tell you that the BCS is all about selling tickets and making money, period. If you don't believe that, just ask Boise State, Utah, and TCU who all have done well in games against BCS-conference schools, yet have continually been shutout when it comes to having a chance to play one of the "big boys" for the BCS title.

Michigan State doesn't have that problem in that they are a member of the Big 10, but they do share the same problem that gets those teams repeatedly passed over—they are not a traditional football power that has a huge national following like a Texas, USC, Ohio State, Alabama, or Notre Dame.

The BCS would gladly invite a 1-loss Alabama to play in one of it's games over an unbeaten Spartans team. Hell, they'd probably take Texas, who may end up with 4 or 5 losses this year over Michigan State if they could get away with it...[/rant].

The bottom line is MSU is 8-0, they have two wins over teams that were ranked in the top 20 when they defeated each (then-No. 11 Wisconsin, and then-No. 18 Michigan), and they have a very good QB, two excellent running backs, a tough-as-nails coach, and a solid defense.

This week they travel to Iowa to face the No. 18 Hawkeyes. If they win that game, an unbeaten season is nearly a lock.

Now all they need should they finish the season 12-0 is a fair shake from the BCS, but don't hold your breath.


No. 5 - Missouri (7-0)

In a lot of ways, 2010 feels like 2007 all over again.

No. 1 ranked teams were dropping like flies that year, and so far this year.

It's also the last time the Tigers were this high in the rankings. They actually made it to No. 1, only to lose to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game and missed a huge opportunity to play in the BCS championship game.

This time around, Mizzou took it to the BCS's No.1 ranked Sooners, handing them a 36-27 defeat.

Oklahoma, however, was as usual over valued. They did blowout then-No. 17 Florida State earlier in the year and they also narrowly beat a then-overrated Texas team by eight points in the Red River Rivalry, but close wins over Utah State, Air Force, and Cincinnati revealed the real Sooners.

So, not to take away too much from what Missouri did to the Sooners, they do move up into the top five, but they could be even higher if Oklahoma were really as good as some blind voters believe they are/were.

Missouri faces the same problem as Michigan State. This week should be their final legit test as they face No. 14 Nebraska (6-1) and then their schedule, and lack of a huge national following will likely hurt their ranking.

They have one saving-grace which will be the Big 12 championship game should they win out.

Not in their favor if that scenario plays itself out is the fact that the Big 12 South representative will probably be Baylor, Oklahoma State, or Oklahoma and a win over any of those three probably won't do much to help the Tigers move ahead of anyone.


No. 4 - Boise State (6-0)

Last week I had Boise State at No. 1 and the only reason they are not No. 1 this week is because they were idle again, while Oregon, Auburn, and TCU all played and played well.

Oddly, everyone else has played seven or eight games to their six.

Anyway, Kellen Moore is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and if ever a team was truly a "team" in every sense of the word, the Broncos are it.

There are no selfish egomaniacs on the Broncos. They play together and all they do it win, and win, and then win some more.

They have two wins this season over previously ranked BCS member schools Virginia Tech (6-2) and Oregon State (3-3). Their remaining schedule has only three games against Hawaii, Fresno State, and Nevada where they might face some competition, but they will be favored in each of those contests.

It's not fair to punish a non-AQ team like Boise State just because the majority of the teams in their conference mail it in early every year. That is not their fault, and neither is the fact that they have a standing offer to play any BCS team in that teams home stadium, or at a neutral site, but have very few takers.

If Boise State keeps winning, you can take it to the bank that no team with a loss will ever jump ahead of them in this guys' top 10.


No. 3 - TCU (8-0)

TCU may have the best chance of the non-AQ schools to play for the title this year and here's why.

They beat then-No. 24 Oregon State 30-21 to open the season.

In week three, they rolled over Baylor, who is now ranked at No. 25 in the BCS standings, by a score of 45-10.

After pitching back-to-back shutout wins over Colorado State and Wyoming, and a 31-3 blowout of BYU, the Horned Frogs crushed Air Force 38-7. Yes, the same Air Force team that leads the nation in rushing and the same Air Force team that former No. 1 Oklahoma only beat by three points.

On November 6th, TCU will travel to Provo to face No. 7 Utah. If both are still unbeaten going into that meeting as expected, the winner of that game should benefit greatly, despite the fact that the BCS is designed to keep them down.

TCU would obviously benefit the most since they are already currently in the top five, but Utah could do just as well with a win and a few losses by other key teams currently ahead of them.

Should TCU finish the year 12-0, I will have a hard time not giving them my No. 1 ranking based on their entire 2010 body-of-work.


No. 2 - Oregon (7-0)

As a Buckeye fan, I couldn't put Oregon at No. 1 this week. I heard all about Oregon's speed and talent and how unstoppable they were on offense last year before the Rose Bowl.

Everyone said Ohio State would do well to keep within 25-30 points. Oregon was going to score at least 50 and Ohio State would lose yet another BCS bowl.

Ohio State 26, Oregon 17.

Here it is 2010 and Oregon, minus thugs Jeremiah Masoli and LeGarrette Blount, are otherwise pretty much the exact same team.

So what makes them legit now?

The same thing that had everyone fooled in 2009—style points.

Never mind the fact that they are averaging over 55 points per game solely because six of their seven games have been against horrible teams with terrible defenses.

AP voters love style points, even when all the competition are doormats.

And even in beating Stanford, the Ducks lone victory over a ranked opponent this year, they didn't exactly face a defensive juggernaut.

The Cardinal are 60th in scoring defense, giving up over 24 points per contest. Even hopeless Washington State scored 28 on the Stanford "D".

Oregon is 7-0 and they have talent, but if they lose this week to USC like I think they are going to, they can almost certainly kiss this top 10 ranking goodbye.


No. 1 - Auburn (8-0)

Let me start off by saying I hate the SEC and every SEC team as much as I hate that team up North, so you better believe that it pains me to rank any SEC team No. 1.

That being said, in a season where there appears to be no dominant great team, but many very good teams, no other team has proven to me that they belong in the top spot this week than the Auburn Tigers.

Their defense could end up being their Achilles heel, but they have faced, and defeated, five teams of the eight teams they have played that are, were, or could be ranked in the top 25, so the 23.5 points they are allowing per game isn't as bad as it seems when you consider the level of competition they have faced.

Having Cam Newton as their QB doesn't hurt either. He is leading the nation in rushing and much like Vince Young at Texas in 2005, could be on his way to leading his team to the BCS title. Unlike Young, he may also being home the Heisman too.

After beating then-No. 6 LSU this past Saturday, moving Auburn up to No. 1 was a no-brainer.

Mississippi and Chattanooga will provide little resistance as Auburn should easily move to 10-0, with surging Georgia and former No. 1 Alabama left on the schedule at the end of the year, plus a potential SEC title game appearance.

With their rankings in the human polls and the love the computers will show them, there is no way the Tigers don't play for the BCS title if they win out.

With their SOS, they might still get a shot at the BCS title even if they lose one of the next four games.

We'd all like to see what a non-AQ team could do vs. one of the best from a BCS conference, but if Auburn or even Alabama plays in and wins the SEC title game, it's almost a guarantee that the BCS will do what they always do and screw the unbeaten little guy, aka Boise State, TCU, etc.


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Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Three Teams That Fit The Profile As A National Championship Contender In 2010


Since the inception of the BCS in 1998, most of the teams that have won national championships have shared certain common denominators.

All have come from "Big Six" conferences, the past six champions posted at least nine victories the previous season and all but one had a winning record in post-October regular-season games.

In addition, 11 of the 12 teams to win the BCS title entered their championship season with a quarterback who was a junior or senior and had at least some starting experience.

Finally, 11 of 12 champions returned at least six full-time starters from a defensive unit that ranked in nation's top 20 in scoring defense the previous season.

Of course, there are other factors involved in fielding a championship team. The majority of champions had junior- and senior-dominated offensive lines, but it's difficult to project line starters seven months before the season begins.

Avoiding injuries also is vital, but how well a team manages that won't be known until after the 2010 regular season is completed.

Fitting the profile obviously won't guarantee a championship: None of the six teams that fit the '09 profile won the national championship. But Texas did play in the BCS national championship game, while Florida and Iowa played in BCS bowls. And Ole Miss, West Virginia and Virginia Tech posted at least nine wins.

This past season, Alabama, which went on to win the national championship, fit five of the six characteristics. They did not have a quarterback who previously had started.

When Alabama defeated Texas in the BCS national championship game, Greg McElroy joined Tennessee's Tee Martin (1998) as the only title-winning quarterbacks in the BCS era without previous starting experience.

So, while profiling shouldn't inspire fans to make reservations for Glendale, Ariz., the site of the 2010 championship game, it at least provides encouragement and a reason to start saving up.

But which fans should start saving? That question is answered in the following profile.


1. Be in a "Big Six" conference

Unbeaten Utah in 2004 and '08, Hawaii in '07, Boise State in '06 and '09 and TCU in '09 were not given a shot at playing for the national championship. Once might be a fluke, twice could be a coincidence and three times is a trend. But six times in six years? That's exclusion. The BCS system consistently has shown that teams outside the six power conferences won't have a legitimate shot at the national title.

Fitting the profile so far: The 65 teams in "Big Six" conferences and Notre Dame.


2. Post at least nine victories the previous season

Nine of the 12 BCS champions (75 percent) posted at least nine victories in the season preceding their national championship run. Four of the past six champions posted double-digit victory totals the previous year; only Florida (9-3 in '06 and 9-4 in '08) did not.

Still fitting the profile: 22 teams -- Alabama, Cincinnati, Clemson, Florida, Georgia Tech, Iowa, LSU, Miami, Nebraska, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Oregon, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Texas, Texas Tech, USC, Virginia Tech, West Virginia and Wisconsin.


3. Posted a winning record in post-October regular-season games

Playing well in November often is the key to winning championships. That also provides a clue as to what programs are improving and could be a factor the next season. Every BCS national champion with the exception of LSU in 2002 posted a winning record in post-October regular-season games the previous year. Seven teams were unbeaten in that span the season preceding their championship.

Still fitting the profile: 17 teams -- Alabama, Cincinnati, Clemson, Florida, Georgia Tech, Miami, Nebraska, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Oregon, Penn State, Texas, Texas Tech, Virginia Tech, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Because the majority of BCS champions were unbeaten in post-October regular-season games the previous season, take extra note of Alabama, Cincinnati, Florida, Nebraska, Ohio State, Texas and Virginia Tech.


4. Return a junior or senior quarterback with starting experience

Again, McElroy and Martin are the only quarterbacks without any previous starting experience to lead BCS championship teams.

Still fitting the profile: 11 teams -- Alabama (McElroy), Cincinnati (Zach Collaros), Clemson (Kyle Parker), Georgia Tech (Josh Nesbitt), Miami (Jacory Harris), Nebraska (Zac Lee), Ohio State (Terrelle Pryor), Oregon (Jeremiah Masoli), Texas Tech (Taylor Potts), Virginia Tech (Tyrod Taylor) and Wisconsin (Scott Tolzien).


5. Return at least six starters from a defensive unit that ranked in the top 20 in scoring defense

We'll define returning starters as players who had no fewer than five starts, which represents at least a third of the games. Nine of the past 10 BCS champs ranked at least 20th in scoring defense the previous season. Tennessee is the only champion in the BCS era that returned fewer than six defensive starters.

Still fitting the profile: Three teams -- Nebraska, Ohio State, Virginia Tech.

Ohio State, Virginia Tech, and Nebraska are high-profile programs, and as demonstrated above, they all fit the national championship profile for 2010.

No doubt, fans of the Buckeyes, Hokies and Huskers already are counting the days to what could be an epic season.

But Alabama fans surely are, too. They're well-aware a team doesn't have to completely meet the profile to raise the crystal trophy.

Oregon, Texas, Miami, Wisconsin, Iowa and several others can glean encouragement from that, too.


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Photo copyright of US Presswire
Article written by Olin Buchanan, senior college football writer for Rivals.com.

Saturday, February 6, 2010

BlockONation's Ridiculously Way-Too-Early Top 10 For 2010—Number Nine

by HD Handshoe
Founder—Block-O-Nation



Welcome to our 10-part series highlighting our picks for the way-too-early top 10 preseason teams in the nation for 2010.

One at a time, our top 10 will be revealed, leading up to No. 1.

As always, we want to know what you think as well, so please post your thoughts in the comment section.

Bookmark the site if you haven't already and feel free to tell all your friends about us too!




Now, on with the countdown...



Number 9—TCU Horned Frogs

TCU had an amazing season in 2009, going unbeaten (12-0) and busting the BCS to earn a spot in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl.

Unfortunately for them, the BCS Monopoly forced them to play fellow BCS Buster Boise State rather than Florida, Cincinnati, Iowa, or Georgia Tech.

The game was fairly evenly matched, and Boise won to cap off a perfect season of their own (14-0), but we really wanted the opportunity to see just how good the two teams were against the big boys.

Maybe next year, but probably not...

Speaking of 2010, TCU should once again be highly ranked to start the season, and deservedly so, as most of their key starters return.

The Horned Frogs lose only two starters on offense—left tackle Marshall Newhouse and tailback Joseph Turner, meaning their somewhat unheralded star QB Andy Dalton will be back for his senior season.

Dalton threw for over 2750 yards, 23 touchdowns, versus only eight interceptions, while posting a 151.8 QB efficiency rating.

Seven starters are coming back on the defensive side of the ball, but defensive end Jerry Hughes, linebacker Daryl Washington, and cornerbacks Nick Sanders and Rafael Priest leave pretty big shoes to fill.

TCU will open its season at Dallas Cowboys Stadium against Oregon State on Sept. 4.

The Horned Frogs also have a home game against Baylor and a road game at SMU in their non-conference schedule.

They should have a legit chance of going 12-0 again if they come close to meeting the high expectations that will be placed upon them.

Although they will likely begin the season in or near the AP top 10, in the end, I personally don't see them remaining unbeaten, or thus in the top 10 too far into the 2010 season.

2010 Regular Season Projection

Possible Losses
Oregon State, Baylor, BYU, and Utah

W/L Record
It's tough to say for sure, but I think TCU wins eight games for sure, and maybe as many as 10 depending on the health of Robert Baylor from Baylor and if they are a little lucky as I expect Oregon State, BYU, and Utah to all be top 25 teams this coming season.

Last season, the Horned Frogs went 8-0 in the Mountain West. I don't believe they will repeat that feat in 2010, but ultimately, they could win the MWC if they don't lose to both BYU and Utah.

I expect to see them in a decent bowl game, but not likely another BCS game this coming year.


Number eight, coming soon!



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Monday, January 11, 2010

BlockONation's Ridiculously Way-Too-Early Top 10 For 2010—Number 10

by HD Handshoe
Founder—Block-O-Nation



Welcome to our 10-part series highlighting our picks for the way-too-early top 10 preseason teams in the nation for 2010.

One at a time, our top 10 will be revealed, leading up to No. 1.

As always, we want to know what you think as well, so please post your thoughts in the comment section.

Bookmark the site if you haven't already and feel free to tell all your friends about us too!



Number 10—Wisconsin Badgers

The Badgers proved me wrong in 2009. I thought seven wins would be about the best they could hope for, but after treading on thin ice for the past two so-so seasons, Bret Bielema has Wisconsin back on track.

To almost everyone's surprise, the Badgers beat Miami 20-14 in the Champs Sports Bowl to finish the season 10-3.

With running back (and Big Ten Offensive POY) John Clay coming back, and quarterback Scott Tolzien exceeding the output I foresaw for him, the Badgers could be scary good on offense in 2010.

Tight end Garrett Graham is the only offensive starter leaving. Five defensive starters will have to be replaced, but that unit wasn't exactly the Badgers strong suit in 2009, so they should be just as good defensively in 2010—whether or not that is saying much, or not, remains to be seen.

Much like 2009, the Badgers' out-of-conference schedule isn't exactly full of challenges. UW will travel to Vegas to take on UNLV, and they will host San Jose State, Arizona State and FCS foe Austin Peay.

In conference, Wisconsin will travel to Michigan State, Iowa and Michigan, but will host Ohio State at Camp Randall in what should prove to be their toughest game of the year.


2010 Regular Season Projection

Probable / Possible Losses
Ohio State, Iowa / Michigan, Northwestern

W/L Record
For my money, 10-2 is possible and the most likely record for Wisconsin in 2010, but 8-4 is also possible. I believe UW will win nine or 10 games, and finish third in the Big Ten, likely behind Ohio State and Iowa.


Number 9, coming soon!



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