Ohio State vs. Penn State— Week 12 (Game 11) Outlook, History Lesson, and Prediction

OSU/Indiana—A Few Opening Thoughts...

Somehow, the Buckeyes let destiny and fate perhaps slip through their hands last week in an unexpected 26-26 overtime loss to Purdue.

This week, Penn State comes to town off a home loss to Nebraska, and still realing from the Jerry Sandusky molestation case, and on the heels of the news that Joe Paterno has been diagnosed with lung cancer.

This game today could play out just about any way imaginable given the whirlwind these two programs have faced recently, and for the Buckeyes, since last December.

The higher ranked team usually wins when OSU and PSU battle, but PSU has only scored three touchdowns against Ohio State in Columbus, EVER. A low-scoring defensive game is most likely -- although every we all think we know what to expect, the opposite happens -- so don't be shocked if both teams break into the 30's or 40's -- or not.

The Wisconsin-Illinois game just went final and with the Badgers win, Ohio State's run of Big Ten titles is officially over -- but, a win today and of course next week vs. "them" will still count as a decent season given everything these players and this program has been through over the last year.


Team Overview / Players of Note

Penn State

The Penn State offense ranks 88^th nationally at 359 yards per game. They are 8^th in total defense, allowing an average of 287 yards per game, and rank 3^rd in points allowed per game (12.9).

Penn State quite frankly has no decent quarterback, but Rob Bolden and Matt McGloin have shared the duties. McGloin seems to be the guy now, but both pretty much suck so it really doesn't matter who starts. McGloin has 1,386 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Bolden has 526 passing yards, one touchdown, and four interceptions.

Running back Silas Redd, PSU's only real offensive threat, leads the team with 1,059 yards and seven touchdowns.

Derek Moye and Justin Brown are one-two in receiving for the Nittany Lions. Moye has 34 catches for 592 yards and three scores, while Brown has caught 32 balls for 423 yards and one touchdown.


Ohio State

Ohio State is 108^th in total offense (317 yards per game) nationally. They are 15^th in total defense, allowing an average of 317 yards per game, and rank 16^th in points allowed per game (18.9).

The Silver Bullets have 22 sacks and 11 interceptions through 10 games.

On the season, QB Braxton Miller, has 679 passing yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions. He also has 490 yards on the ground and five rushing touchdowns. His current passer efficiency rating is 134.

Carlos Hyde still leads the team in rushing with 525 yards and six touchdowns, while senior starter Dan Herron, who will play his final home game today has 477 yards and a two scores.

Devin Smith leads the team in yardage with 241 yards on 11 catches, including four for scores. Tight end Jake Stoneburner, who has not caught a pass in the last three games, is still second on the team with 150 yards, and still leads in receptions and touchdowns, with 12 and six respectively.


Ohio State—Penn State History Lesson And Trends

• Ohio State is 14-12-0 all-time vs. PSU.

• Ohio State is 69-8 in Ohio Stadium since 2001.

• Ohio State is 18-2 in November games since 2005.

• Ohio State has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against PSU.

• Ohio State is 183-78-11 all-time in November home games.

• Ohio State is 2-2 against ranked teams under coach Luke Fickell this year.

• Ohio State's defense has held opponent to fewer than 10 points 31 times since 2006.

• Ohio State's defense has allowed just one 100-yard rusher in the past 28 games at home.

• Ohio State's defense has allowed just seven 100-yard rushers in their last 46 games.

• Ohio State has held 66 opponents to 21 points or less since the start of the 2005 season.

• Ohio State has lost just three games in the month of November since their last loss to Michigan on November 22^nd, 2003 (Purdue 2004, Illinois 2007, Purdue 2011).

• PSU has only beaten Ohio State twice in Columbus since 1978.


Final Thoughts and Score Prediction

There's really not much else to say. I believe it was all covered in the opener.

This game feels like a toss-up so the home team gets the edge.

The score is anyone's guess.

Here's mine -- literally a gut-feeling guess.

Ohio State 20
Penn State 12


"To be a champion, you have to believe in yourself when no one else will" (you also have to beat Purdue, but I digress) - Sugar Ray Robinson

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Is Ohio State Football Still Among the Elites?

by HD Handshoe
Founder
BlockONation.com



These days, when you think of elite programs in college football, several teams that immediately come to mind are the USC Trojans, Florida Gators, Oklahoma Sooners, LSU Tigers, Texas Longhorns and the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Since 2001, only USC and Pete Carroll has more wins than Jim Tressel's Buckeyes and both equally have one BCS title. USC also haa an AP title from 2003 when LSU won the BCS title, but the AP still voted the Trojans #1 for some odd reason.

It's no secret that Ohio State's recent losses vs. the other elite teams previously mentioned have taken away some of the luster of the program and led many to believe Ohio State is not elite and in fact, overrated simply because of the history and tradition of the program.

Here are Ohio State's last eight losses, all since 2005. I'm not sure why this resume is the reason they have been dragged through the mud over the past several seasons, but nonetheless, it is.

2005 Regular Season vs. eventual BCS National Champions Texas

Team AP Rank on gameday:

Texas was ranked No. 2
Ohio State was ranked No. 4

Final Score:

Texas 25
Ohio State 22

Looking back:

Vince Young should have won the Heisman and he led Texas (13-0) over USC (12-1) 41-38 in one of the best BCS title games ever played.

Ohio State (10-2) should have won this game and literally, they were one dropped touchdown catch away from beating Texas, but fell short in the end.

2005 Final AP Poll Rank:

Texas No. 1
Ohio State No. 4


2005 Regular Season vs. eventual Big 10 & Orange Bowl Champions Penn State

Team rankings on gameday:

Penn State was ranked No. 16
Ohio State was ranked No. 6

Final Score:

Penn State 17
Ohio State 10

Looking back:

The 2005 Nittny Lions (11-1) were one of Joe Pa's best teams ever and if not for a fluke loss at Michigan (7-5), they may have won the BCS title against either Texas or USC.

So, while a loss is a loss, Ohio State (10-2) had chances to win this game, which by the way, was played in Happy Valley at night in the "whiteout" where very few opponents ever come away victorious.

2005 Final AP Poll Rank:

Penn State No. 3
Ohio State No. 4


2006 BCS National Championship Game vs. SEC and eventual BCS Champions Florida

Team rankings on gameday:

Ohio State was ranked No. 1
Florida was ranked No. 2

Final Score:

Florida 41
Ohio State 14

Looking back:

Sure the score was lop-sided and Ohio State (12-1) was favored but Ted Ginn going out after the opening kickoff was a major blow not to be overlooked, and let's not forget...

For 50+ days straight, all Ohio State heard was how great they were and how all they needed to do was show up and pick up the trophy and all Florida (13-0) heard was how much they didn't belong, and how Michigan deserved to be there more than them, and that they had no shot to beat the Buckeyes and they only got in because UF coach Urban Meyer, aka Urban Cryer, told his sob story about how the SEC is just so tough and there's no way an SEC team can go undefeated and that's why his team deserved to jump UM...which they did in the final poll.

It's no surprise why UF won. They had more motivation and more to prove and Buckeyes were told that they couldn't lose. No excuse though in this game in the end because the Bucks rolled over and got rolled by UF in embarrassing fashion as the heavy favorites so I get why OSU took a hit nationally after this game and deservedly so.

2006 Final AP Poll Rank:

Florida No. 1
Ohio State No. 2


2007 Regular Season vs. eventual Big Ten Runner-up and Rose Bowl representative Illinois

Team rankings on gameday:

Ohio State was ranked No. 1
Illinois was unranked

Final Score:

Illinois 28
Ohio Stare 21

Looking back:

I guess this was Ohio State's "hiccup" game, kind of like when Stanford beat USC in 2007 or when Ole Miss beat Florida in 2008.

I won't go overboard on excuses but there was a clear fumble by Illinois (9-4) out of the end-zone that the refs missed which would have given the Buckeyes (11-2) the ball. Instead Illinois scored a touchdown a play or two later.

I'm not saying the Buckeyes would have won, but we'll never know for sure now.

The bottom line is Ron Zook is a good coach and he has fared well vs. Ohio State since he's been in Champaign.

2007 was a very strange year in college football anyway because every week that a new team took over the No. 1 ranking, they seemed to lose their very next game.

The Buckeyes followed that trend, just like all the others.

2007 Final AP Poll Rank:

Ohio State No. 5
Illinois No. 20


2007 BCS National Championship Game vs. SEC and eventual BCS Champions LSU

Team rankings on gameday:

Ohio State was ranked No. 1
LSU was ranked No. 2

Final Score:

LSU 38
Ohio State 24

Looking back:

This game pushed the Buckeyes record all-time vs. teams from the SEC in bowl games to the now infamous and pathetic record of 0-9.

In fairness, Ohio State was never expected to even play for the title in 2007. Not by the fans, the media or even the players and coaches. It was widely viewed as a stepping stone season to a legit title run in 2008.

They overachieved all year and in the end, teams like Kansas, Missouri and West Virginia choked in the final week or two of the season, allowing both LSU and Ohio State to move up to the top two spots essentially by default.

The title game was played in New Orleans, a mere 80 miles or so from Baton Rouge. It's not quite like playing USC in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena 910 miles from USC's campus), but pretty damn close!

It was a "neutral field" home game for LSU and the inept and immobile Todd Boeckman, and Ohio State O-line, gave the ball and the game away by consistently killing OSU drives with costly unforced turnovers and by not throwing it away instead of allowing the LSU defense to sack him repeatedly 5 and 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage.

There were also at least two personal foul penalites called on OSU that kept stalled LSU drives alive and eventually led to more points for the Tigers.

By my count and if my memory serves me correctly (which it does), the penalties and turnovers resulted in a four touchdown swing in favor of LSU, meaning had Ohio State not killed themselves with these stupid mistakes, they would have won this game 42-10.

But, they did kill themselves and they didn't win. LSU had a good team and I'm suggesting that they didn't, but Ohio State was just as fast and just as talented.

Even at "home", the Tigers were very beatable and the game could have and should have went the other way.

2007 Final AP Poll Rank:

LSU No. 1
Ohio State No. 5


2008 Regular Season vs. eventual Pac-10 and Rose Bowl Champions USC

Team rankings on gameday:

USC was ranked No. 1
Ohio State was ranked No. 5

Final Score:

USC 35
Ohio State 3

Looking back:

Again, I'm not trying to make excuses here but when a team is without their best offensive player, the game outcome is going to be affected.

Stud running back Beanie Wells didn't play in this game and unfortunately, Todd Boeckman did.

True freshman phenom Terrelle Pryor saw very limited action in the first quarter only and he ran circles around USC's vaunted defense, but Tressel didn't want to throw him to the wolves in such a huge game so, once OSU was behind 10-3, Pryor didn't see the field again and Boeckman buckled under the pressure as usual and the game was swiftly out of reach.

Now, if there is a the silver lining, it's that USC is great, especially at home and they were the then No. 1 ranked team in the nation and as mentioned, Wells was out for OSU.

The bad news is, the media and college football fans didn't seem to think Wells would have made any difference. I disagree 1000%!

All I'm saying is, take away the best offensive threat from any team in the country and then have them go play USC in L.A. and let me know how that turns out...

2008 Final AP Poll Rank:

USC No. 3
Ohio State No. 9


2008 Regular Season vs. eventual Big 10 Co-Champions and Rose Bowl Representative Penn State

Team rankings on gameday:

Penn State was ranked No. 3
Ohio State was ranked No. 10

Final Score:

Penn State 13
Ohio State 6

Looking back:

This game came down to true freshman Terrelle Pryor trying to make a big play and instead he fumbled the ball late in the game on Ohio State's side of the field.

Ultimately, that led to the games only touchdown and Penn State's first win in Columbus in 30 years.

There's really not much else to tell. It was a close, defensive battle and unfortunately, Pryor made a freshman mistake and that was the difference.

The game really could have went either way. Had Pryor simply ran the play up the middle for a first down (it was 3rd and 1), the Buckeyes very well may have won.

2008 Final AP Poll Rank:

Penn State No. 8
Ohio State No. 9


2008 Fiesta Bowl vs. eventual Big 12 Co-Champions and Fiesta Bowl Champions Texas

Team rankings on gameday:

Texas was ranked No. 3
Ohio State was ranked No. 10

Final Score:

Texas 24
Ohio State 21

Looking back:

Texas (12-1) beat Oklahoma (12-1) 45-35 during the regular season, but because of an odd tie-breaker, Oklahoma played in the Big 12 Championship game and eventually against Florida in the BCS Championship game instead of the Longhorns.

Without doing a full game recap, Texas started out strong but the Buckeyes (10-3) came back to take a 21-17 game with close to two minutes left in the game.

Colt McCoy engineered the Longhorns to a game-winning touchdown with only a few seconds on the clock.

Ohio State was given no chance to win this game and even less of a chance to keep from being blown out.

Ironically, this actually was one of the best bowl games of the entire postseason and essentially, the Bucks lost the game by a couple inches when they almost forced a turnover on downs on Texas's game winning drive.

But in the end, this was just another game where the Buckeyes could/should have won, but came up just short, literally this time by inches.

2008 Final AP Poll Rank:

Texas No. 4
Ohio State No. 9


In hindsight, other than the Illinois loss, none of these other defeats were so-called "hiccups".

All eight teams that Ohio State lost to finished that season ranked in the top twenty.

Seven of the eight finished ranked in top ten.

Six of the eight finished ranked in the top five.

The final AP Poll is the most important because it is after the season, when all the games have been played, and when we truly know how good or how overrated teams were.

Can Ohio State win every big game vs. every elite team they ever play?

Of course not and it's extremely unlikely that any other team in the nation would have won all eight of these games.

Does that mean Ohio State is not elite?

If winning 10 games or more practically every year and being ranked in the top ten at years end almost every season means a team isn't elite, well, then yes but we all know better than that.

Does Ohio State have to start winning some of these games on the "national stage" to reaffirm and maintain their status as one of college football's elite?

Absolutely and unequivocally YES—Without question!

It all has to start this season when the Buckeyes host USC.

A win solidifies the program as elite, while a loss, particularly one comparable to last seasons in L.A. will further erode the fading memories of the Buckeyes previous greatness from yesteryear's of old.

It's unrealistic to expect any team to win every game, every year.

The Buckeyes can't and don't have to win do that, but they have to start winning some of these OOC games vs. the other elitesm—and fast.

For that reason, the USC game is more or less a must win game for the Buckeye program.

After all, there's no free pass when it comes to being in the discussion as one of the nation's elite programs.

Just ask any Michigan, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Miami, or Florida State fan.

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Big Ten Football Post-Spring Power Rankings: A New Big Two, Little Nine?

by Kristofer Green
BlockONation Columnist



Is this the year the Big Ten bounces back and becomes among the nation's elite conferences again? Probably not, but led by Ohio State's Terrelle Pryor and Penn State's Daryll Clark, there is talent in several key positions all over the conference.

It is starting to look more and more like the battle for the Big Ten crown is going to be a three-man race. This spring Ohio State and Penn State cemented their claim to the top two spots and are far and away the best two teams heading into the fall.

But the Iowa Hawkeyes are not far behind and before the season ends will once again play a major role in the Big Ten title race. If the Hawkeyes are not challenging for the title themselves, they will have a shot at knocking off both the Buckeyes and the Nittany Lions—even though they must travel to Columbus and Happy Valley to do it.

Heading into the fall, there is still a lot of work to do for every team. These power rankings reflect how I see the teams after the close of spring practice. Pre-spring rankings are in parentheses.


1. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (1)

The Buckeyes lost a large senior class and a few underclassmen to the NFL, but after two huge recruiting classes for Jim Tressel, the cupboards are far from bare in Columbus. The evidence was on full display at Ohio state's spring game.

Sophomore quarterback Terrelle Pryor showed significant improvement after 15 practices, receivers Dane Sanzenbacher, DeVier Posey, Ray Small, and Lamar Thomas could be better than the two Brians (Robiskie and Hartline), and the running back combo of Daniel Herron and Brandon Saine could add a different element to the Buckeyes offense.

Defensively the Buckeyes must replace superstars James Laurinaitis and Malcolm Jenkins, but before Laurinaitis and Jenkins there were A.J. Hawk and Donte Whitner. Ohio State always seems to be able to replace superstars on defense, and after this season we could be asking how the Buckeyes will be able to replace Austin Spitler and Chimdi Chekwa.


2. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (2)

The good thing about a good team playing a weak schedule is that the season can essentially be boiled down to a few games. For the Nittany Lions, 2009 boils down to four games, and the big one is at home. The Lions must travel to Illinois and Michigan State, while the revenge game against the Hawkeyes and what may end up being the de facto Big Ten Championship game against Ohio State are at home.

This team will be talented but young in key positions. The lines need a lot of retooling. Maurice Evans and Aaron Maybin are gone on the defensive line, and only guard Stefen Wisniewski returns on the offensive line.

Galen Hall and Jay Paterno must also find replacements for Derrick Williams, Deon Butler, and Jordan Norwood, all of whom were four-year players.


3. IOWA HAWKEYES (3)

There is plenty to get excited about in Iowa City, but cautious optimism may be the best course of action for fans.

The offensive line was strong last season but lost guard Seth Olsen and center Rob Bruggeman; however, the tackles are back, as well as quarterback Ricky Stanzi and top receiver Derrell Johnson-Koulianos.

Jewel Hampton seems like he'll be a competent replacement for Shonn Greene, but Greene's ability to make something out of nothing isn't so easily replaced.

Defensively, replacing Mitch King and Matt Kroul is going to be difficult. The pair was certainly the best tackle combination in the conference last season. The Hawkeyes may have an easier time replacing King and Kroul than they do with their Big Ten road schedule: They visit Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State in 2009.


4. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI (5)

The skill players in Champaign might be the best in the conference. Juice Williams has matured into an efficient passer and a good all-around playmaker, and he has all his key parts back, from receivers Arrelious Benn and Jeff Cumberland to tight end Michael Hoomanawanui, who will be a bigger part of the offense this season.

The Illini pass rush was the best in the Big Ten, and the entire front seven was great at getting into the backfield, but the run defense stunk. The team led the league in tackles for loss and still finished ninth in run defense. This season, the defense will again be active and athletic but must show it can be tough.


5. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (4)

The defense showed some flashes last season but lacked the consistency that Mark Dantonio defenses usually have. This season, most of the defense returns and should be loaded with Greg Jones and Trevor Anderson leading a good front seven.

The defense will need to carry the load especially early on as quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol gain some experience. Replacing Javon Ringer is still a major concern heading into the fall, but a receiving corps that was mediocre last season should be better with a year of experience under its belt.


6. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (6)

The Wildcats were second in the Big Ten in sacks allowed last season, and that was with three redshirt freshmen starting. The entire line returns, including senior tackle Desmond Taylor, and could be the best offensive line in the conference heading into the season.

Offensively there is still work to do. Mike Kafka showed some improvement this spring at the quarterback position but still needs to prove he can do more than run, and Pat Fitzgerald is still looking for a steady running back to emerge to replace Tyrell Sutton.


7. MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (7)

Tim Brewster joked that he fielded more questions about the new TCF Bank Stadium than he did about football this spring. Maybe it's because there isn't much new to report about the Gophers football team. Everyone is back.

Sure, Jack Simmons, Willie VanDeSteeg, and Deon Hightower were all major producers, but they’re the only ones missing from a team that started out last season so hot.

Everyone else is back, including quarterback Adam Weber, receiver Eric Decker, and eight other starters on offense, as well as nine starters on defense.


8. WISCONSIN BADGERS (9)

The Badgers might be tremendously flawed, and if they play like they did last year, they can be beaten by anyone, but the schedule works out relatively well with no Penn State or Illinois and plenty of winnable home games against teams like Wofford, Northern Illinois, and Purdue.

Another reason to get excited is the emergence of freshman quarterback Curt Phillips this spring. Although Dustin Sherer does have starting experience, Phillips' quick feet and running ability could give the Badgers offense the kick they so desperately need.


9. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (8)

The Wolverines had a promising spring but still have major concerns all over the field. Last season, the defense was the strength of the team and can be directly credited with all three of the Wolverines' victories, but the losses of Tim Jamison and Terrence Taylor on the line and Morgan Trent and Brandon Harrison in the secondary seem all the more devastating after the defensive unit struggled this spring.

The star this spring was undeniably freshman quarterback Tate Forcier, who struggled early on but had seemingly taken over as the leader of the quarterback race heading into the fall.


10. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (10)

Danny Hope's first spring as Purdue's head coach is over, and while there is reason to be excited about a defense that returns its entire secondary—which led the Big Ten in pass defense—there is still reason for concern about an offense that lost everyone of significance from last season.

Hope looks to the fall when he can add talented freshmen Eric Williams, Gary Bush, and Gabe Holmes to the mix on offense. Al-Terek McBurse needs to step up this fall and show that he can carry the rushing load left by Kory Sheets.


11. INDIANA HOOSIERS (11)

The Hoosiers were last in the Big Ten in almost every meaningful defensive category, struggled offensively, and were blown out in every FBS game but two last season. Is the talent level there to improve?

Bill Lynch kicked Kellen Lewis, his best offensive player, off the team, and the defense, led by defensive end Jammie Kirlew, didn't show much growth in the spring. It's hard to see the Hoosiers improving on last season's 3-9 record.


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